DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE 15,000
7/81-11/82: Part 2 of back-to-back recessions.
Continued tight monetary policy to fight inflation.
Double-digit interest rates, soaring unemployment.
circulation newspaper (USA Today) and many pioneering HOW RECESSIONS STACK UP cable networks (including CNN and MTV) launched during the deep recessions of the early ‘80s. Key stats for four major recession periods
This excites me: During the recession of 2008-09, I know STATS 1929-33 marketing and media innovation will take place. New companies, technology, products and ideas will emerge, creating -13.0% jobs, changing markets and leading to more effective, efficient marketing. NA
Some of this innovation will occur as a direct response to 24.9% the downturn; problems lead to solutions. Other types of -9.9%
innovation will be coincidental to the downturn; Bill Gates -13.1% started Microsoft Corp. in 1975 not in response to a reces- -86.2% sion, but in pursuit of an emerging technology and opportunity.
We are in the most serious economic downturn of our generation. But we’ll get through it. I expect that reading this will give you confidence that the current downturn is a great time to innovate and change in marketing and media. Perhaps it’ll even provide some big ideas, too.
The Great Depression, including the cataclysmic 1929-33 recession and a
5,000 deep 1937-38 recession.
11/73-3/75: Oil shock, energy crisis. Stagflation (inflation, economic stagnation). “Whip Inflation Now.”
Nov. 21, 2008: Bear market intraday low of 7,449
Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment
Unemployment
Inflation
Real ad spending
S&P 500 drop
57.6
9.0%
11.0%
-4.4%
-48.2%
51.7
10.8%
13.5%
- 3.7%
-25.8%
55.3
5.8%
3.8%
- 3.8%
-52.7%
1929-82: weakest point in recessions for GDP (annual), unemployment, inflation, ad spending (year-over-year % chg.), sentiment; S&P drop in bear markets overlapping recessions. 2008: projected full-year GDP, inflation, ad spending, unemployment rate; November sentiment; S&P drop from Oct. ‘07 peak to Nov. ‘08 low. Source: Ad Age DataCenter research; IHS Global Insight; Group M; National Bureau of Economic Research
DEALING WITH DEPRESSION
“More than one advertising executive has publicly
acknowledged his debt to the depression, admitting that it
was not until the pressure of necessity exerted itself that he
really found out how to get one hundred cents’ worth of
value from the expenditure of every advertising dollar….
The new attitude toward advertising is not less hopeful and
enthusiastic than the old—it is only more practical and more determined….
“All of this represents a healthy attitude, and practically guarantees advances and improvements over former practices. It is just such a state of healthy dissatisfaction as this that has been responsible for most of the progress of the world, and it is a good thing for business and advertising that smug satisfaction is no longer being tolerated.”
—Ad Age editorial (“Depression Has Its Good Points”),
References:
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